Macau GGR Forecasted to Rise 5.3% in 2026
Jefferies analysts are forecasting continued momentum for Macau’s gaming sector, projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow by 5.3 percent in 2026. The outlook builds on a solid 2025, when Macau generated MOP247.4 billion ($30.86 billion) in GGR an annual increase of 9.1 percent. That result exceeded Jefferies’ own 8.9 percent estimate and came just shy of the broader market consensus of 9.2 percent.
In a recent research note, the analysts highlighted supportive year-on-year comparisons extending through May and suggested the government’s GGR target of MOP236 billion appears conservative. Based on current assumptions, Jefferies expects 2026 GGR to reach MOP260.6 billion, driven by a 2 percent increase in VIP volumes to MOP69.34 billion and a 6.6 percent expansion in the mass segment to MOP191.26 billion.
Visitor numbers set to break new records
Macau is also expected to see a further rise in visitor arrivals between 2026 and 2027, following the setting of a new record previously. Total visitation is projected at 41.98 million, with mainland China accounting for the bulk of traffic at approximately 30.43 million visitors.
Arrivals from Hong Kong are forecast to edge up from 7.32 million in 2025 to around 7.46 million, while visitor numbers from outside Asia are expected to climb from 3.72 million to 4.09 million. Analysts estimate international arrivals will increase by roughly 10 percent, supported by operators’ overseas market expansion and government-backed international marketing campaigns. Despite higher traffic, average visitor spending is expected to remain stable at about MOP6,207 ($774), reflecting a continued focus on longer-stay, higher-value guests.
Sands tops operator revenue forecasts
Among Macau’s operators, Sands China is projected to lead revenue rankings in 2026, with estimated revenue of $8.35 billion up 2 percent from fourth-quarter 2025 forecasts. The company has also gained market share, rising 0.5 percentage points to roughly 24.4 percent in Q4 2025.
Galaxy ranks second, with 2026 revenue forecast at HK$53.28 billion ($6.65 billion), representing a 1 percent increase following a 1.7-point gain in market share to 22.1 percent. MGM China is projected to generate HK$36.69 billion ($4.58 billion), supported by a 0.7-point market share increase to 16.5 percent. Wynn’s share slipped by one point to 12.2 percent, while SJM declined by 1.2 points to 10.7 percent. Jefferies maintains buy ratings on Galaxy, Sands, MGM and Wynn, while keeping SJM at hold.
Galaxy eyes further share gains through expansion
Galaxy is targeting a 20–22 percent market share by 2027, anticipating a more balanced competitive environment following the rollout of Smart Tables as part of its Phase 4 expansion. The project includes 1,500 additional hotel rooms, 120 new retail units, a water resort, 400 extra gaming tables and a 5,000-seat entertainment venue aimed at strengthening VIP and premium mass play.
Galaxy reported VIP GGR growth of 19 percent to HK$11.02 billion, while mass GGR increased 9 percent to $39.87 billion. Renovation work at StarWorld is now expected to extend beyond the originally planned one to two years, while the closure of the Waldo satellite is seen as having minimal impact. Galaxy Macau alone is forecast to deliver HK$48.48 billion in GGR, representing an 11 percent year-on-year increase.
Sands focuses on EBITDA scale
Sands continues to prioritize absolute EBITDA growth over margin expansion, targeting a $2.7 billion run rate. This includes approximately $1 billion each from the Venetian and Londoner, $300 million apiece from the Parisian and Four Seasons, and $100 million from Sands Macau. The reopening of Londoner’s 2,405 rooms underpinned last year’s performance.
Overall, Sands’ GGR is projected to rise 12 percent to $7.98 billion, with VIP revenue up 11 percent to $717 million and mass revenue increasing 12 percent to $6.46 billion. Londoner leads with $3.17 billion in GGR, a 19 percent increase, followed by Venetian at $2.79 billion, up 10 percent. Commissions are expected to reduce GGR by about 20 percent, slightly lower than the 22 percent impact recorded in 2025.
MGM sharpens premium mass strategy
MGM continues to focus on premium mass players to support a mid-teens market share, anchored by the Alpha Club on the peninsula, which features 27 tables alongside dining and lounge facilities. At MGM Cotai, the Mansion One offering is expanding, with 63 suites to be delivered from an initial 160 rooms by mid-2026, alongside a level-two refurbishment aimed at premium clientele.
Total GGR reached HK$41.34 billion, reflecting 7 percent growth. VIP revenue rose 6 percent to HK$4.98 billion, while mass revenue increased 7 percent to HK$33.86 billion. MGM Cotai generated HK$23.05 billion, up 6 percent, while MGM Macau posted an 8 percent increase to HK$16.3 billion.
Wynn and SJM developments
Wynn is completing its Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace ahead of Chinese New Year, alongside upgrades to Wynn Tower floors that are expected to enhance performance across both properties. The Wynn Palace Event Center remains subject to approval, with an early 2028 opening targeted.
Meanwhile, SJM plans to expand the peninsula’s largest integrated resort, Hotel Lisboa, by adding 7,504 square meters capable of housing up to 80 gaming tables. Combined, the Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa offer around 1,500 rooms. Following the closure of satellite casinos, 440 tables have been redistributed across SJM’s remaining properties.
